Insights

Barely a week into the new year, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that he is heading to Asia and the Middle East as part of his government’s efforts to increase exports beyond the United States. The U.S. remains our largest trading partner, but it has also become our most unpredictable one. Tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump—and the casual talk of economic coercion dressed up as “America First”—have made one thing clear: Canada is not viewed as a partner when it is convenient to view us as leverage. Trade agreements are honoured selectively. Rules are bent when domestic politics demand it. Friendship, it turns out, has a tariff schedule. Canada’s overreliance on the U.S. has long been an economic vulnerability disguised as comfort. Nearly three-quarters of our exports still flow south. That level of dependency might make sense if the relationship were stable. It no longer is. That is why Carney’s stated goal—to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade—is not just prudent, it is overdue. Early indicators suggest momentum is already building. According to Statistics Canada’s January trade data, the trade surplus with the U.S. was lower in October, and exports with other nations rose. For example, exports to the United Kingdom for gold and crude oil to China were both up significantly. These are not symbolic wins; they are market corrections. Carney along with Ministers Anita Anand, Tim Hodgson, Mélanie Joly, Heath Macdonald, Maninder Sidhu, parliamentary secretary to the prime minister Kody Blois, and new Liberal MP Michael Ma, are spending a couple of days in China in mid-January meeting government and business leaders to “attract investment (and) diversify trade.” Following China, Carney travels to Qatar to promote trade and then heads to Davos for the World Economic Forum for further meetings to attract investment and new trade relations. Sidhu hit the Gulf region before the Prime Minister and announced five deals worth $600 million with Saudi Arabia, before he joined Carney in China. (In 2024, Canada’s exports to Saudi Arabia totalled about $2 billion and last year, Canada and Saudi Arabia agreed to further negotiations on investment and mutually beneficial trade initiatives). Carney’s decision to travel with senior ministers to China, the Gulf, and Davos is not naïveté about values—it is realism about interests. Canada does not have the luxury of conducting trade policy as a morality seminar. The global economy is being reshaped in real time, and countries that hesitate will be sidelined. Engagement does not mean endorsement; it means ensuring Canadian workers, businesses, and investors are not collateral damage in someone else’s trade war. Trade opportunities for Canada with China and the Middle East simply cannot be overlooked. For China, the second most populous country in the world, with two-way trade totalling $118.7 billion in 2024, there are additional trade opportunities in agriculture, natural resources and energy, including oil. And Canadians support increasing trade between our two nations. A recent Ipsos poll for Global news show more Canadians want the government to increase trade with China, 54 per cent, this follows an Angus Reid poll in October showing a slight increase in favourability towards China following Trump’s tariffs and threats of Canada becoming the 51st state. What matters most now is consistency. Canada must resist the temptation to slow down, hedge, or retreat if political winds change in the United States. Even if a future administration in Washington adopts a softer tone, the structural lesson remains: dependence is weakness. Markets diversify; serious countries do too. Carney’s government deserves credit for acting decisively where previous governments talked cautiously. But diversification cannot be episodic or reactive. It must be institutionalized—through infrastructure, export financing, trade corridors, and sustained diplomatic presence in growth markets. Leaving no table unturned means exactly that. Canada cannot afford to wait for Washington’s permission to pursue its own economic security. The world is bigger than one border, and Canada is finally starting to act like